Southampton Banter Mobile

25 Jul 2024 11:41:17
Which formation should we go with?

I used Chat GPT to see the survival rates of promoted teams.

In summary, 3 5 2 is the best of the common formations. Though Luton and Sheffield United got relegated in these. Won us the playoffs but may be less effective if lose KWP.

Interestingly, a 100% survival rate with rare formations (3 4 3, 3 4 2 1, 4 1 4 1). Maybe the element of surprise helps. 3 4 3 keeps a familiar front 3 year on year and 3 4 2 1 gives 2 of O'Riley, Lallana, Alcaraz, Dibling and Aribo in the 11.

Could start 3 5 2 and switch to 3 4 3/3 4 2 1 when chasing a game.

What do you think?


Last 10 Seasons (2014/15 to 2023/24)

• 4-2-3-1: Usage Percentage: 40.0%, Survival : 35%

• 4-4-2: Usage Percentage: 22.5%, Survival Rate: 33%

• 3-5-2: Usage Percentage: 17.5%, Survival Rate: 40%

• 4-3-3: Usage Percentage: 7.5%, Survival Rate: 33%

• 3-4-3: Usage Percentage: 2.5%, Survival Rate: 100%

• 4-1-4-1: Usage Percentage: 2.5%, Survival Rate: 100%

• 3-4-1-2: Usage Percentage: 5.0%, Survival Rate: 100%

26 Jul 2024 21:26:36
I personally enjoy a back three, however that means having very very good wing backs who make or break the formation. We don’t have one on the left and it also encourages the thought that you need three CBs as two isn’t solid enough.

If we did go back 3, it’d have to be a 3-4-1-2 with KWP on the left, Charly at 10 and a very very solid pair of CMs. I don’t think we’re brave enough to do that.

Back four, Taylor/KWP - THB - Bednarek - Sugarawa
3 in midfield, probbaly two sat back - Downes and Smallbone, Alcaraz in front, with Arma and Diaz either side of Stewart up top I think gives us some dynamism.

Obviously relying on Stewart is a risk and Arma could go into ST with JRS, Sulemana or SAA on the left, but none of that fills me with much confidence.

GK, CM, ST and AM needed for me - Ramsdale loan, O’Riley, Rak-Sakyi if he is as good as we’re making him out, and Diaz seem to be the route currently, totalling £60m or so. Sell the deadwood of Mara (£3m), Onuachu (£6m), Manning (£3m), Lis (didn’t inspire me with confidence, £1.5m) and ABK if he doesn’t want to stay - hopefully £12m+, recoups £25m or so and hopefully keeps us within budget.

That to me is sensible and realistic. But I’d like us to end up nicking a bit of a marquee signing to really galvanise the support for what will be a tough season, especially if none of these points deductions seem to be happening any time soon.

22 Jul 2024 20:35:17
Why when we sing, Oh when the saints go marching in . do we only sing the slow version. We used sing the first verse and then speed up and shout louder/more aggressively the second verse that really sounded awesome. Why don't the fans sing it that way anymore? I personally think we should go back to the old way. Thoughts everyone please

23 Jul 2024 09:29:27
I think the slow and laboured version reflects the tempo of Martin’s preferred style of play!

23 Jul 2024 11:46:37
Good one!

Perhaps we should repeat the same line over and over again and go back a few verses too for full effect!

Agree with the suggestion saint_ben. We need to create an atmosphere or fortress at home.

That or sing a lullaby and hope the other team falls asleep, after being hypnotised with our slow passing!

23 Jul 2024 13:12:14
@SaintThatAKickInTheHead! Yes, we definitely need to get behind the team and I think with our record Season ticket number sales it shows a willingness to do so. I personally think our style of play is better suited to the Prem over the championship. But we do need to add more quality, for sure. For me O'Riley would be a great addition, Ramsdale would be absolutely amazing and then most importantly we need a couple of strikers. But I really want to hear the fans sing the older version of the song, the faster part really gets the blood pumping!

23 Jul 2024 22:41:17
It is great to hear the positivity back and everyone behind the team.

Ramsdale, O'Riley and a top striker would give us a real chance for survival, I agree.

Good to hear you think our style could be more suited to the prem. Have even been mulling over a 3 4 3 to keep that consistency with the forward three year on year.

Hopefully Lallana can develop Alcaraz and Dibling. Taylor mentors Larios and if the Ox comes back, he can get Sulemana to his potential

COYR!

24 Jul 2024 10:57:50
Agree with all that you have said, although I don't see a future for Sulemana with us, I fear that the manager has tried to develop him and gave him opportunities to perform in the championship but he simply did not take them. I don't think he is good enough, simple as that. Very fast player but nothing more. I would get rid and invest the money into Jack Clark

24 Jul 2024 12:02:31
That's interesting. I have always had a soft spot for Sulemana. His pace and trickery can get you up on the edge of your seat. But he did not step up last season and stake his claim as hoped. Useful on the break but probably not suited to possession football.

A front 3 of Clarke, Brereton Diaz and Armstrong on the cards? With O'Riley, Lallana, Alcaraz or Dibling as CAM? Depends if go 3 5 2 or 3 4 3

25 Jul 2024 09:06:34
I think I am the only one who rates Sulemana - not so much for what he has done but for the potential he has - blistering speed and some trickery.

I hear you say no end product but I don’t think he’s been given a fair chance - a run of games. He’s had minutes here and there.

I think he will achieve more than Edozie (who I also like) but time will tell.

Jack Clarke though would be a big addition to the squad.

25 Jul 2024 13:45:22
Jack Clarke seems to be priced out if you believe what they are saying. Our interest in the Crystal Palace kid will probably be instead of jack Clarke, at a guess.

25 Jul 2024 20:12:22
I like Sulemana, millertime. I think he is much more effective when playing a central role, he’s wasted as a winger because his crossing in woeful. We need a target man, Broja, Weghorst, Antonia etc, we must hold the ball up better if we are going to have a chance of survival this season

25 Jul 2024 22:18:53
I agree … Sulemana has great skill, great control and speed . wasted on the wing. and back to my love of Fraser . fantastic natural finisher, great reader of the game. wasted at wing back, I’d love to see him
Play in front of a wing back! Makes space and great runs into the box .

21 Jul 2024 07:39:18
{Ed's Note - Fixer has posted a new article entitled, Arne Slot's Liverpool Tactical Setup

16 Jul 2024 07:39:22
{Ed's Note - Dillinger has posted a new article entitled, EPL LOAN SIGNINGS THAT LEEDS UNITED SHOULD BE LOOKING AT

11 Jul 2024 21:18:06
{Ed's Note - Ed001 has posted a new podcast entitled, New Ed1 Podcast on Youtube

07 Jul 2024 10:15:44
Seems like RM is continuing down the route of signing young talent from parts of the world/leagues that he knows.

I'm all for young English talent and long may it continue but it is always a bit of a gamble. There's a reason why the premiership is littered with foreign players, because even the top English talent isn't enough. Hopefully though it works out out and or we sign the odd European talent here or there.

On a side note I find it completely nuts that our former chairman is now a member of parliament.and for reform?!

:/

08 Jul 2024 06:42:00
Glad Rupert Lowe isn't our Chairman now! His hard immigration policy would severely limit our transfer window options!

03 Jul 2024 14:02:02
Quite like our start to the window - THB, Lallana, Taylor, Wood and Edwards coming in, Downes hopefully coming in for wantaway KWP, and all for very good prices.

If the figure is a net £83m (ish, I know it's more complicated than that), that's £26m or so spent, provided no cash is involved in signing Downes. We'll see.

Sugarawa is being heavily rumoured and would be a good addition in my books, else I like Aarons, and I think that about sorts the back line - ABK, DCC and Lyanco will all be off, leaving 10 defensive players.

Goalie massively needed and I sincerely hope Martin doesn't stick with McCarthy but I can see it happening. Just look at some of the keepers at the Euros playing in lower leagues, we could have so much better.

In midfield, we look quite light - if Alcaraz and Aribo go, that leaves Smallbone, Charles, Downes and Lallana. We need at least one more to compete with Smallbone to be starting, and O'Riley at £25m+ seems to be the current thinking. I can't say I know much about him.

That would leave about £25m for the front line to go with Edozie, Ross, Arma, presumably Fraser and Mara, assuming Sulemana and Onuachu go. We again need two here. Obvious punts are those performing at the Euros, Schranz and Mikautadze, but they're gambles.

We need a starting winger and starting forward minimum, and even then may be able to get one or two more in for reasonable prices or if we sell for good deals.

Whittaker of Plymouth is an option but a risk, having worked with Martin before, and probably wouldn't be a starter.

Any realistic options? We know Arma won't be as prolific back in the PL and who knows what Stewart will turn out like.

03 Jul 2024 16:56:51
Hi SaintGGsy,

Can’t argue with your analysis of the squad and where we need bolstering.

That led me to think about what is the harder challenge - is it building a squad capable of staying up in the PL or is it assembling a squad capable of getting promoted to the PL?

Obviously, we achieved the latter but would it be harder to finish 4th bottom (or better) in PL, than 4th top in Championship.

From the incomings, as I see it, we are not getting much with successful PL experience. Taylor has, but in a team (Burnley) which got relegated. Lallana is very experienced but will spend most of the season either on the bench or in the medical room.

So we are hoping to strike it lucky with players coming from Peterborough, Swansea and Millwall. It’s great if it works, but if it doesn’t?

It’s too early to be cynical, but what odds on Martin seeing his contract out?

03 Jul 2024 19:52:00
I expect Cordova-Reid to sign once back from Copa America, Fraser will sign for free on a 3 year contract. KWP has said he wants to move and has been clear he will not sign a new/ extension to his existing contract. West Ham want him so I expect Downes/KWP swap, we will sign a first choice right back.

We might get Ings for a very low fee or possibly free but his current wages are a problem for us to pay. I think Stewart will be ok in premier league, he is a very good player and excellent finisher. We are looking for an attacking midfield player as Alcaraz does not fit in with our style of play.

Expect Alcaraz to leave, possibly another large loan fee. We will bring in an experienced older keeper on a years contract as cover for McCarthy. Lyanco is going to Atletico Minero, ABK is going to German club on loan, Caleta car is signing for Lyon. Don’t be surprised to see Lavia and Delap on loan.

04 Jul 2024 05:47:49
I was going to withhold my opinion until. after the ‘dealins done’but to date II believe Saint GGsy you’ just about nailed it.! .RM continue to tread. very carefully.with plenty of quality option still aavailable .With SFC previous transfer history it wiould’t surprise me if the cheaper midfield option of Calllum O’Hare in lieu of. O’Reilly was not pursued.Wood / Edwards twogood young defenders alongside TBH.With several signings still required RM many well defer 1. or 2 until Jan. to re-assess requirements if he believes he can avoid collateral damage until then.!

04 Jul 2024 11:23:22
I agree with your potential signings SaintGGsy. I think Mikakuatde (butchered spelling my bad) will be a good striker for us pacy and can finish which is what we need right now as we aren't finishing goals enough and we concede hence why we finished 4th in the Championship. So Mika would be a good Striker for us Personally for the wings I would say Philogene he plays at hull and is attracting interest from Ipswich and Crystal Palace. I think swooping him for our wings would be a good idea.

I would try keep ABK as he is still young and he can improve unless a club offers big money for him so maybe a loan and alcaraz the same.

I agree Matt o' riley would be good for midfield and alledgly we are trying to get McTominay too so hopefully if we can get these players our team can look strong.

Obv the keeper is a must change IMO, Ik Mccarthy can have good days but we need a good keeper and there are so many keepers that play in UEFA competions that are in relatively less known leagues and grabbing one keeper of one of those teams can significantly boost us from relegation to possible midfield- low top 10. I remember with a strong team we can make it to like the semi finals of the FA up so hopefully we can do that again maybe even make the final and win but hey I'm probably delusional

05 Jul 2024 08:50:09
Great thread and comments.

GK - Pivotal to survival. I hope we invest but would McCarthy have signed if he thought he would be number 2?

CB - Great to get in young talent at good deals. If we drop down and THB and Bednarek go, we have a ready made partnership. If ABK and CC leave as 2408 suggests, I think we need another CB, especially if we go 3 5 2. Otherwise, if we we are struggling in Dec, I agree Millertime, I can feel a lot of us thinking it was madness to pressure 3 young CBs with no PL experience.

Wing Backs - Please keep KWP or get similar quality. Then we we need RB cover at least. Not convinced by Manning, Larios or Bree in the Prem, maybe loan as useful in the Champ.

CM - Downes is essential and I think we need another DM for cover or if we go 4 2 3 1. We struggled a lot without him and Charles is young. Loan in seems sensible and Lavia could be great. AM, O'Riley if Alcaraz sadly goes.

Wingers - if go 3 5 2 with 2 wingbackd then this position is not as key. So, good debate on whether to go for a Cordova Reid and invest more in a ST or spend on a Clarke, Philogene, Whittaker instead. Probably loan/sell 1 of Sulemana, Ameyaw and Edozie at LW. Sulemana did do okay in the Prem before.

Strikers - Mara probably a loan or sell then 2 more. We need a proven player and then hopefully 1 of AA, Stewart or Ings will do well too

Should get us to 80m net spend.

05 Jul 2024 18:27:11
Spot on SaintThatAKickInTheHead, We've signed THB with a clause in the loan if we got promoted so he should be on our team. So he should be on your team I believe. But everything you said I hope it happens. Boosting our wingers maybe selling Kalameeden Getting Philogene and maybe Clarke would be nice for the wings and Alcaraz could play as a Striker and we get O'Riley or we could find a good striker like Mikauztude but he could be like James Rodriguez hopefully if we do sign him (unlikely) he can be good and not flop after a good international performance.

05 Jul 2024 18:46:32
Good post SaintThat etc ….
And the previous posts.
I think it’s going to be very interesting window between now and 30 Aug.

06 Jul 2024 05:24:36
Cordova -Read now going to Leicester? Strange decision as I think he would get more football at Saints. Now we’re linked with Wellington a left back, does that mean Manning Larios or both are leaving?

06 Jul 2024 08:48:16
I thought Cordova Reid was pretty nailed on. Very disappointed indeed as clearly gone for better wages esp with Lei facing big points deduction. Hope to get Jerimimo and Ingsy in. Also Wellington and O’Riley

06 Jul 2024 09:57:02
I could see Manning leaving @2408, Larios and Meghoma being loaned to championship sides to eventually take over from Taylor and getting cover in.

@JoshGarge Sorry I explained that badly. I know THB is with us. I meant Wood and Edwards are good value signings. Hopefully they can perform at this level but if we do get relegated next season and THB and Bednaerek need to be sold, we have have 2 solid championship players ready to go. Still hope for another experienced CB too.

Agree Millertime. This will be an interesting window. Then again, I was excited during our first SR window, so should hold the horses!

06 Jul 2024 10:26:15
As someone famously said, “you win nothing with kids” - I suppose it’s where you set your sights. Some may say 4th bottom or better is ‘winning’ from a Saints perspective.

As others have said, it is the GK situation which is most concerning. If we are to have a younger defensive unit, we need an experience figure of authority between the posts - that isn’t Baz (yet) and McCarthy would seem to be a step backwards.

It’s looking less likely that we will be holding onto KWP but his valuation (£20M) seems far too low.

Let’s get busy…

06 Jul 2024 16:58:26
Agree Millertime. These lads will need some experience around them in a relegation fight.

Just read that THB and Wood play together in the England U21s, so good already a partnership there.

We will wait and see.