25 Jul 2024 11:41:17
Which formation should we go with?

I used Chat GPT to see the survival rates of promoted teams.

In summary, 3 5 2 is the best of the common formations. Though Luton and Sheffield United got relegated in these. Won us the playoffs but may be less effective if lose KWP.

Interestingly, a 100% survival rate with rare formations (3 4 3, 3 4 2 1, 4 1 4 1). Maybe the element of surprise helps. 3 4 3 keeps a familiar front 3 year on year and 3 4 2 1 gives 2 of O'Riley, Lallana, Alcaraz, Dibling and Aribo in the 11.

Could start 3 5 2 and switch to 3 4 3/3 4 2 1 when chasing a game.

What do you think?


Last 10 Seasons (2014/15 to 2023/24)

• 4-2-3-1: Usage Percentage: 40.0%, Survival : 35%

• 4-4-2: Usage Percentage: 22.5%, Survival Rate: 33%

• 3-5-2: Usage Percentage: 17.5%, Survival Rate: 40%

• 4-3-3: Usage Percentage: 7.5%, Survival Rate: 33%

• 3-4-3: Usage Percentage: 2.5%, Survival Rate: 100%

• 4-1-4-1: Usage Percentage: 2.5%, Survival Rate: 100%

• 3-4-1-2: Usage Percentage: 5.0%, Survival Rate: 100%


1.) 26 Jul 2024
26 Jul 2024 21:26:36
I personally enjoy a back three, however that means having very very good wing backs who make or break the formation. We don’t have one on the left and it also encourages the thought that you need three CBs as two isn’t solid enough.

If we did go back 3, it’d have to be a 3-4-1-2 with KWP on the left, Charly at 10 and a very very solid pair of CMs. I don’t think we’re brave enough to do that.

Back four, Taylor/KWP - THB - Bednarek - Sugarawa
3 in midfield, probbaly two sat back - Downes and Smallbone, Alcaraz in front, with Arma and Diaz either side of Stewart up top I think gives us some dynamism.

Obviously relying on Stewart is a risk and Arma could go into ST with JRS, Sulemana or SAA on the left, but none of that fills me with much confidence.

GK, CM, ST and AM needed for me - Ramsdale loan, O’Riley, Rak-Sakyi if he is as good as we’re making him out, and Diaz seem to be the route currently, totalling £60m or so. Sell the deadwood of Mara (£3m), Onuachu (£6m), Manning (£3m), Lis (didn’t inspire me with confidence, £1.5m) and ABK if he doesn’t want to stay - hopefully £12m+, recoups £25m or so and hopefully keeps us within budget.

That to me is sensible and realistic. But I’d like us to end up nicking a bit of a marquee signing to really galvanise the support for what will be a tough season, especially if none of these points deductions seem to be happening any time soon.


2.) 27 Jul 2024
27 Jul 2024 10:13:04
Superb analysis @SaintsGGsy.

I agree 3 5 2/3 4 1 2 is promising but a question mark on whether we have 3 centre backs and 2 wing backs good enough. Depends on how the new signings adapt and on KWP and ABK.

When you just look at promoted teams survival rate. 3 5 2 outperforms 4 2 3 1 but the reverse is true when looking at the survival formations of the bottom 8 clubs for the last 5 seasons, so depends on quality.

Would be over the moon to get just 1 of Ramsdale and O'Riley. Diaz replaces Che. Still need another striker. Not sure if Carlton Morris or Smozdics worth exploring? Lamine Camara looks interesting in CM. Hopefully a surprise too.